polymarket
and kalshi
basically online betting platform for anything
like whether trump will out in 2025
as there are multiple markets and there are shared predictions, i thought there was some chance to make money by exploiting the skew
the basic idea is, for a prediction, if the price of yes in market 1 plus the price of no in market 2 is less than $1, then i can make money for sure.
unfortunately, this is probably not easy as others could take the chance as well
so eventually the price across markets should be the same
and if this is the case, then lowest hidden fees market or best incentive market can win
ok. for example, the trump 2025 out chance
as of now, kalshi, buy yes 5c, no 96c, total 101c, so the market will get 1% share. for ploymarket, buy yes 4c, no 96.4c, total 100.4c. the market get 0.4%.
and there’s no way for me to bet both sides to make money. lowest is 4c + 96c =100.
maybe i should write a bot to monitor and trade realtime.